Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?
Ends: Aug 8, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 02:51 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T01:31:44.922Z | 47.5% | 48.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:37:38.476Z | 50.5% | 49.7% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:39:44.991Z | 50.5% | 49.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:41:14.825Z | 50.5% | 49.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:41:55.824Z | 50.5% | 49.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:48:39.617Z | 48.5% | 48.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:51:15.465Z | 48.5% | 48.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:54:49.594Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:11.863Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:18.650Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:02:50.928Z | 48.5% | 48.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:05:26.468Z | 46.5% | 48.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:06:44.837Z | 46.5% | 48.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:10:49.958Z | 46.5% | 48.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:11:20.335Z | 46.5% | 48.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:14:40.824Z | 46.5% | 47.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:18:46.879Z | 47.5% | 48.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:21:11.034Z | 47.5% | 48.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:41.505Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:26:10.776Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:31:50.746Z | 51.5% | 49.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:35:10.884Z | 51.5% | 50.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:35:47.220Z | 51.5% | 50.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:36:18.154Z | 51.5% | 50.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:39:54.357Z | 51.5% | 49.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:40:18.495Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:44:44.811Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:47:49.079Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:49:45.025Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:51:03.532Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 08, 02:49 AM | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:47 AM | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:40 AM | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:39 AM | 51.5% | 49.3% | −2.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:36 AM | 51.5% | 50.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:35 AM | 51.5% | 50.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:31 AM | 51.5% | 49.7% | −1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:24 AM | 48.5% | 48.5% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.