Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?
Ends: Aug 8, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 02:04 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T00:20:31.803Z | 48.5% | 46.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:25:48.073Z | 48.5% | 46.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:32:48.076Z | 48.5% | 47.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:34:49.140Z | 48.5% | 47.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:38:37.985Z | 48.5% | 46.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:40:43.904Z | 48.5% | 46.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:44:48.175Z | 48.5% | 46.8% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:46:41.712Z | 48.5% | 48.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:48:40.121Z | 48.5% | 48.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:52:43.171Z | 48.5% | 48.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T00:57:39.754Z | 48.5% | 48.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:01:43.326Z | 48.5% | 49.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:03:39.757Z | 48.5% | 49.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:07:41.543Z | 48.5% | 48.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:09:48.172Z | 48.5% | 48.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:12:31.791Z | 48.5% | 48.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:16:44.358Z | 48.5% | 51.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:18:38.565Z | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:24:53.971Z | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:27:59.640Z | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:29:41.800Z | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:33:49.279Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:39:44.026Z | 48.5% | 49.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:40:32.886Z | 48.5% | 49.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:41:55.824Z | 48.5% | 49.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:48:39.617Z | 48.5% | 48.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:55:20.294Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:18.650Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:02:50.928Z | 48.5% | 48.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:04:13.623Z | 48.5% | 48.4% | -0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 08, 02:02 AM | 57.5% | 48.4% | −9.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 01:59 AM | 57.5% | 49.0% | −8.5 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 01:55 AM | 57.5% | 49.3% | −8.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 01:48 AM | 57.5% | 48.7% | −8.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 01:41 AM | 57.5% | 49.8% | −7.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 01:40 AM | 57.5% | 49.9% | −7.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 01:39 AM | 57.5% | 49.9% | −7.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 01:33 AM | 57.5% | 48.5% | −9.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.