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Crypto · POLYMARKET · CLOSED

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29?

Ends: Oct 29, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 29, 2026, 16:37 UTCResult: UPResolved: Oct 29, 2026, 16:12 UTC

VERDICTNO PUBLISHED ANALYSIS

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET UP 99.6%MARX FAIR UP -
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%25%50%75%100%
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Oct 28, 04:52 AMOct 28, 01:36 PMOct 28, 10:19 PMOct 29, 07:02 AMOct 29, 03:45 PM UTC

UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-10-28T09:56:28.233Z49.5%-—
2026-10-28T10:56:09.192Z49.5%-—
2026-10-28T11:57:56.413Z49.5%-—
2026-10-28T12:56:54.758Z49.5%-—
2026-10-28T13:57:09.871Z49.5%-—
2026-10-28T14:56:34.942Z50.0%-—
2026-10-28T15:55:36.744Z49.5%-—
2026-10-28T16:36:50.889Z49.5%-—
2026-10-28T17:35:05.908Z51.5%-—
2026-10-28T18:58:30.798Z61.5%-—
2026-10-28T19:45:21.954Z71.5%-—
2026-10-28T20:44:02.017Z67.5%-—
2026-10-28T21:58:38.571Z77.5%-—
2026-10-28T22:50:20.054Z75.5%-—
2026-10-28T23:53:20.869Z76.5%-—
2026-10-29T01:04:38.032Z69.5%-—
2026-10-29T02:04:01.890Z35.5%-—
2026-10-29T03:03:35.935Z30.5%-—
2026-10-29T04:10:59.805Z22.5%-—
2026-10-29T05:10:33.274Z41.5%-—
2026-10-29T06:18:31.457Z31.0%-—
2026-10-29T07:17:23.301Z25.5%-—
2026-10-29T08:22:00.279Z27.5%-—
2026-10-29T09:24:02.883Z33.5%-—
2026-10-29T10:44:55.460Z32.5%-—
2026-10-29T11:39:08.987Z25.5%-—
2026-10-29T12:39:04.841Z25.0%-—
2026-10-29T13:45:33.351Z16.5%-—
2026-10-29T15:02:59.693Z94.5%-—
2026-10-29T15:45:47.979Z99.6%-—

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETWHY NO ANALYSISSTRATEGY