Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29?
Ends: Oct 29, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 29, 2026, 16:37 UTCResult: UPResolved: Oct 29, 2026, 16:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29T13:36:00.924Z | 21.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T13:45:33.351Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T13:47:33.573Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T13:48:34.860Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T13:51:19.439Z | 21.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T13:57:08.481Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T13:58:08.304Z | 27.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T14:01:08.604Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T14:08:20.074Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T14:09:08.318Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T14:16:48.064Z | 41.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T14:24:25.180Z | 37.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T14:24:40.800Z | 37.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T14:27:40.660Z | 35.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T14:32:49.235Z | 54.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:02:59.693Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:08:06.589Z | 95.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:10:46.612Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:16:32.351Z | 98.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:22:01.446Z | 98.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:33:49.605Z | 99.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:41:17.686Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:42:27.573Z | 99.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:45:47.979Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:46:13.894Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:51:48.479Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T15:53:04.362Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T16:02:49.615Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T16:08:04.429Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-29T16:37:05.313Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.