Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?
Ends: Aug 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 19, 2026, 20:24 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19T19:14:02.665Z | 39.5% | 40.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:16:34.130Z | 39.5% | 31.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:18:32.117Z | 39.5% | 33.7% | -5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:20:06.097Z | 39.5% | 33.7% | -5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:21:31.276Z | 39.5% | 37.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:22:03.487Z | 39.5% | 37.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:23:27.331Z | 39.5% | 36.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:25:44.433Z | 39.5% | 37.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:36:00.676Z | 39.5% | 36.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:37:15.950Z | 39.5% | 36.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:38:32.244Z | 39.5% | 35.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:40:45.860Z | 39.5% | 34.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:41:03.680Z | 39.5% | 34.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:46:05.528Z | 39.5% | 40.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:46:05.931Z | 39.5% | 40.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:49:33.453Z | 39.5% | 40.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:51:32.530Z | 39.5% | 39.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:51:32.996Z | 39.5% | 39.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:53:33.844Z | 51.5% | 40.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:53:35.163Z | 51.5% | 40.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:56:05.953Z | 51.5% | 41.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:56:47.433Z | 51.5% | 41.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-19T20:15:54.676Z | 51.5% | 52.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-19T20:18:47.782Z | 51.5% | 49.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T20:20:08.525Z | 51.5% | 49.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T20:20:13.151Z | 51.5% | 49.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T20:20:18.869Z | 51.5% | 49.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T20:20:47.876Z | 51.5% | 50.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T20:22:47.618Z | 51.5% | 53.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-19T20:24:36.933Z | 51.5% | 53.8% | +2.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 08:22 PM | 39.5% | 53.8% | +14 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 19, 08:20 PM | 39.5% | 50.3% | +11 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 19, 08:20 PM | 39.5% | 49.1% | +9.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 19, 08:20 PM | 39.5% | 49.1% | +9.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 19, 08:20 PM | 39.5% | 49.1% | +9.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 19, 08:18 PM | 39.5% | 49.1% | +9.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 19, 08:15 PM | 39.5% | 52.1% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 19, 07:56 PM | 39.5% | 41.0% | +1.5 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.