Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?
Ends: Aug 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 19, 2026, 19:48 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19T18:51:34.320Z | 40.5% | 42.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:54:47.265Z | 40.5% | 38.8% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:56:04.274Z | 40.5% | 38.8% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:59:09.413Z | 40.5% | 38.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:01:33.152Z | 41.5% | 39.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:01:34.630Z | 41.5% | 39.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:03:47.584Z | 41.5% | 40.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:03:49.371Z | 41.5% | 40.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:05:08.376Z | 41.5% | 40.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:06:35.712Z | 41.5% | 39.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:09:38.274Z | 41.5% | 41.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:14:02.665Z | 33.5% | 40.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:15:06.086Z | 33.5% | 40.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:16:34.130Z | 33.5% | 31.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:18:32.117Z | 33.5% | 33.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:20:06.097Z | 39.5% | 33.7% | -5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:21:31.276Z | 39.5% | 37.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:23:03.473Z | 39.5% | 36.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:23:27.331Z | 39.5% | 36.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:25:44.433Z | 39.5% | 37.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:34:34.029Z | 34.5% | 36.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:36:00.676Z | 34.5% | 36.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:37:15.950Z | 34.5% | 36.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:38:32.244Z | 34.5% | 35.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:40:45.860Z | 39.5% | 34.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:41:03.680Z | 39.5% | 34.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:45:05.551Z | 39.5% | 40.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:46:05.528Z | 39.5% | 40.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:46:05.931Z | 39.5% | 40.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:48:28.587Z | 39.5% | 40.6% | +1.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 07:46 PM | 39.5% | 40.6% | +1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 19, 07:46 PM | 39.5% | 40.6% | +1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 19, 07:41 PM | 39.5% | 34.6% | −4.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 07:40 PM | 39.5% | 34.6% | −4.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 07:38 PM | 34.5% | 35.1% | +0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 19, 07:37 PM | 34.5% | 36.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 19, 07:36 PM | 34.5% | 36.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 19, 07:25 PM | 39.5% | 37.4% | −2.1 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.