Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?
Ends: Aug 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 19, 2026, 19:05 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19T17:20:09.130Z | 40.5% | 30.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:20:09.630Z | 40.5% | 30.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:21:34.477Z | 40.5% | 30.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:22:10.680Z | 40.5% | 27.4% | -13.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:24:20.663Z | 40.5% | 27.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:24:23.478Z | 40.5% | 27.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:29:37.334Z | 40.5% | 23.9% | -16.6 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:47:58.708Z | 40.5% | 31.3% | -9.2 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:53:21.909Z | 40.5% | 33.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T17:56:47.381Z | 40.5% | 33.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:17:44.329Z | 40.5% | 34.7% | -5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:20:32.308Z | 40.5% | 36.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:21:53.071Z | 40.5% | 36.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:22:35.347Z | 40.5% | 37.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:25:15.114Z | 40.5% | 35.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:25:20.363Z | 40.5% | 35.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:40:52.688Z | 40.5% | 36.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:45:19.358Z | 40.5% | 38.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:45:26.919Z | 40.5% | 38.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:47:31.260Z | 40.5% | 42.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:49:40.464Z | 40.5% | 40.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:49:42.871Z | 40.5% | 40.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:51:34.320Z | 40.5% | 42.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:54:47.265Z | 40.5% | 38.8% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-19T18:59:09.413Z | 40.5% | 38.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:01:33.152Z | 40.5% | 39.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:01:34.630Z | 40.5% | 39.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:03:47.584Z | 40.5% | 40.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:03:49.371Z | 40.5% | 40.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T19:05:18.524Z | 40.5% | 40.6% | +0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 07:03 PM | 49.5% | 40.6% | −8.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 07:03 PM | 49.5% | 40.6% | −8.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 07:01 PM | 49.5% | 39.1% | −10 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 07:01 PM | 49.5% | 39.1% | −10 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 06:59 PM | 49.5% | 38.9% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 06:54 PM | 49.5% | 38.8% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 06:51 PM | 49.5% | 42.4% | −7.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 19, 06:49 PM | 49.5% | 40.8% | −8.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.