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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends: Dec 31, 2027, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 19:35 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 13.5%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 30, 01:38 PMJul 30, 03:07 PMJul 30, 04:37 PMJul 30, 06:06 PMJul 30, 07:35 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T16:47:01.435Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T16:52:10.428Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T16:57:14.306Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:02:17.404Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:11:09.903Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:18:58.788Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:26:09.014Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:31:13.980Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:38:37.909Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:43:50.412Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:49:24.296Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:54:37.422Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T17:59:48.459Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:07:59.908Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:15:26.628Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:22:05.242Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:27:13.778Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:32:24.963Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:37:51.611Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:42:56.167Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:47:59.785Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:53:05.262Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T18:58:09.828Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T19:03:14.979Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T19:12:01.616Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T19:17:12.287Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T19:23:23.376Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T19:28:35.525Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T19:33:45.906Z13.5%-—
2026-07-30T19:35:39.254Z13.5%-—

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

TRADE YES/NOWHY NO ANALYSISSTRATEGY