Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2027, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 19:35 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T18:42:56.167Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:47:59.785Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:53:05.262Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:58:09.828Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:03:14.979Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:12:01.616Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:17:12.287Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:23:23.376Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:28:35.525Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:33:45.906Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:35:39.254Z | 13.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.