Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2027, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 19:35 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T03:10:20.772Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:47:20.198Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:18:05.945Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:49:31.360Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:23:14.122Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:55:03.103Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:27:40.910Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:05:52.634Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:43:33.191Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:16:58.522Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:49:08.684Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:22:47.182Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:53:45.762Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:30:31.054Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:02:49.972Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:35:08.362Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:11:19.123Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:43:25.887Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:15:45.747Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:54:37.683Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:27:25.863Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:58:16.477Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:34:35.444Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T16:25:00.060Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:02:17.404Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:49:24.296Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:27:13.778Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:58:09.828Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:33:45.906Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:35:39.254Z | 13.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.