Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2027, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 18:27 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T02:53:14.274Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:26:45.935Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:52:31.260Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:23:17.371Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:54:49.961Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:28:44.651Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:00:09.477Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:32:53.461Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:05:52.634Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:43:33.191Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:11:31.815Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:43:51.632Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:17:15.725Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:48:35.678Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:20:05.685Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:52:28.090Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:24:29.825Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:51:53.680Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:27:34.335Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:59:40.738Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:33:21.250Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:05:23.633Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:37:49.674Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:13:38.414Z | 14.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:45:30.234Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T16:32:15.605Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:11:09.903Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:49:24.296Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:27:13.778Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:27:28.395Z | 13.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.