Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?
Ends: Aug 10, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 10:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T07:19:23.128Z | 52.0% | 50.1% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:20:12.358Z | 52.0% | 50.1% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:30:06.145Z | 52.0% | 53.5% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:36:01.849Z | 52.0% | 55.7% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:41:25.342Z | 52.0% | 52.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:48:47.316Z | 52.0% | 49.9% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:55:48.710Z | 50.5% | 46.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:05:03.760Z | 50.5% | 52.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:16:58.128Z | 50.5% | 49.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:22:52.551Z | 50.5% | 50.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:23:14.918Z | 50.5% | 50.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:34:44.745Z | 50.5% | 52.7% | +2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:41:07.511Z | 50.5% | 48.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:45:23.892Z | 50.5% | 43.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:55:23.592Z | 50.5% | 47.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:05:52.331Z | 44.5% | 49.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:10:55.471Z | 44.5% | 48.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:17:50.094Z | 44.5% | 49.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:23:49.018Z | 44.5% | 46.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:29:12.445Z | 44.5% | 36.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:32:49.908Z | 44.5% | 36.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:37:55.391Z | 44.5% | 32.8% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:41:57.222Z | 44.5% | 33.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:50:33.426Z | 44.5% | 30.8% | -13.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:01:48.577Z | 35.5% | 28.8% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:06:59.052Z | 35.5% | 34.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:08:51.064Z | 35.5% | 33.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:19:43.472Z | 35.5% | 33.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:25:49.752Z | 35.5% | 36.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:29:20.671Z | 35.5% | 36.2% | +0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 10:25 AM | 44.5% | 36.2% | −8.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 10:19 AM | 44.5% | 33.9% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 10:08 AM | 44.5% | 33.7% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 10:06 AM | 44.5% | 34.8% | −9.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 10:01 AM | 44.5% | 28.8% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 09:50 AM | 44.5% | 30.8% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 09:41 AM | 44.5% | 33.7% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 09:37 AM | 44.5% | 32.8% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.