Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?
Ends: Aug 10, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 10:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T09:49:47.282Z | 28.5% | 30.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:50:17.351Z | 28.5% | 30.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:50:33.426Z | 28.5% | 30.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:51:49.380Z | 28.5% | 31.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:53:48.196Z | 29.0% | 30.4% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:55:15.942Z | 29.0% | 30.1% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:56:33.944Z | 29.0% | 30.1% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:00:13.257Z | 26.5% | 28.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:01:12.357Z | 31.5% | 28.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:01:48.577Z | 31.5% | 28.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:04:47.506Z | 33.0% | 33.7% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:05:34.381Z | 33.0% | 33.7% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:06:12.464Z | 33.0% | 33.7% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:06:59.052Z | 33.0% | 34.8% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:08:48.798Z | 33.0% | 33.7% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:08:51.064Z | 33.0% | 33.7% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:10:52.539Z | 33.0% | 33.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:11:14.587Z | 33.0% | 33.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:13:13.076Z | 32.5% | 33.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:15:12.516Z | 33.5% | 33.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:15:44.788Z | 33.5% | 33.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:17:54.321Z | 33.5% | 34.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:19:43.472Z | 35.5% | 33.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:21:12.363Z | 35.5% | 34.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:21:46.465Z | 35.5% | 34.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:23:52.434Z | 35.5% | 36.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:25:49.752Z | 35.5% | 36.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:27:50.116Z | 35.5% | 36.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:28:15.550Z | 35.5% | 36.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T10:29:49.362Z | 35.5% | 36.2% | +0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 10:25 AM | 35.5% | 36.2% | +0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 10:23 AM | 35.5% | 36.7% | +1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 10:21 AM | 35.5% | 34.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 10:19 AM | 35.5% | 33.9% | −1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 10:17 AM | 33.5% | 34.4% | +0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 10:15 AM | 33.5% | 33.9% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 10:10 AM | 33.0% | 33.6% | +0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 10:08 AM | 33.0% | 33.7% | +0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.