Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?
Ends: Aug 10, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 09:53 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T06:20:39.346Z | 34.5% | 50.1% | +15.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T06:25:58.946Z | 34.5% | 50.7% | +16.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T06:35:52.946Z | 34.5% | 47.5% | +13.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T06:42:56.107Z | 34.5% | 49.1% | +14.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T06:53:48.321Z | 34.5% | 51.1% | +16.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:01:21.786Z | 34.5% | 50.9% | +16.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:10:55.532Z | 34.5% | 49.0% | +14.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:19:23.128Z | 34.5% | 50.1% | +15.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:25:55.518Z | 34.5% | 54.3% | +19.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:35:52.456Z | 34.5% | 55.7% | +21.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:41:25.342Z | 28.5% | 52.6% | +24.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:46:49.422Z | 28.5% | 51.2% | +22.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T07:53:47.759Z | 28.5% | 47.0% | +18.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:04:46.963Z | 28.5% | 52.1% | +23.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:11:57.793Z | 28.5% | 49.3% | +20.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:21:21.692Z | 28.5% | 51.2% | +22.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:31:56.230Z | 28.5% | 52.5% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:38:48.243Z | 28.5% | 49.7% | +21.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:42:19.483Z | 28.5% | 48.0% | +19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:52:01.561Z | 28.5% | 47.1% | +18.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T08:57:57.486Z | 28.5% | 48.5% | +20.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:06:56.893Z | 28.5% | 49.3% | +20.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:15:41.988Z | 28.5% | 49.0% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:19:52.979Z | 28.5% | 47.8% | +19.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:26:05.376Z | 28.5% | 45.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:34:52.191Z | 28.5% | 35.3% | +6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:37:55.610Z | 28.5% | 32.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:46:55.479Z | 28.5% | 30.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:51:49.380Z | 28.5% | 31.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T09:53:30.287Z | 28.5% | 31.1% | +2.6 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 09:51 AM | 34.5% | 31.1% | −3.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 09:46 AM | 34.5% | 30.5% | −4.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 09:37 AM | 34.5% | 32.8% | −1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 09:34 AM | 34.5% | 35.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 09:26 AM | 34.5% | 45.0% | +10 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 09:19 AM | 34.5% | 47.8% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 09:15 AM | 34.5% | 49.0% | +15 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 09:06 AM | 34.5% | 49.3% | +15 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.