Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
Ends: Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 08:17 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T05:34:48.792Z | 72.5% | 75.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:38:40.648Z | 72.5% | 75.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:47:39.798Z | 72.5% | 77.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:53:37.859Z | 72.5% | 76.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:59:38.347Z | 72.5% | 77.1% | +4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:05:39.022Z | 72.5% | 76.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:13:20.312Z | 72.5% | 74.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:17:58.216Z | 72.5% | 71.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:20:29.306Z | 72.5% | 70.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:26:26.806Z | 72.5% | 74.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:35:42.058Z | 72.5% | 75.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:39:38.915Z | 72.5% | 75.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:46:38.994Z | 72.5% | 75.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:52:41.047Z | 72.5% | 75.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:58:30.040Z | 72.5% | 76.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:04:46.490Z | 72.5% | 75.4% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:08:38.876Z | 72.5% | 76.6% | +4.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:15:37.774Z | 72.5% | 81.5% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:21:39.948Z | 72.5% | 80.3% | +7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:29:45.946Z | 72.5% | 80.3% | +7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:35:41.788Z | 72.5% | 78.6% | +6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:37:39.407Z | 72.5% | 79.3% | +6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:40:31.920Z | 72.5% | 78.2% | +5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:51:45.596Z | 72.5% | 76.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:56:01.349Z | 72.5% | 75.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:04:40.520Z | 72.5% | 76.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:09:40.395Z | 72.5% | 77.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:15:56.292Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:16:30.194Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:17:40.342Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 06, 08:16 AM | 50.0% | 73.7% | +24 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 08:15 AM | 50.0% | 73.7% | +24 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 08:09 AM | 50.0% | 77.0% | +27 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 08:04 AM | 50.0% | 76.2% | +26 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 07:56 AM | 50.0% | 75.2% | +25 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 07:51 AM | 50.0% | 76.7% | +27 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 07:40 AM | 50.0% | 78.2% | +28 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 07:37 AM | 50.0% | 79.3% | +29 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.