Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
Ends: Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 08:18 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T07:54:20.539Z | 76.5% | 74.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:55:10.368Z | 75.0% | 75.2% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:56:01.349Z | 75.0% | 75.2% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:56:03.019Z | 75.0% | 75.2% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:59:09.614Z | 75.0% | 75.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:00:10.414Z | 77.0% | 75.6% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:01:06.886Z | 77.0% | 75.6% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:03:41.241Z | 77.0% | 76.2% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:04:40.520Z | 77.0% | 76.2% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:05:10.806Z | 77.0% | 76.2% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:05:44.210Z | 76.0% | 77.5% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:06:14.730Z | 76.0% | 77.5% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:07:09.567Z | 76.0% | 76.9% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:07:41.382Z | 76.0% | 76.9% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:08:09.692Z | 76.0% | 76.9% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:09:22.346Z | 75.0% | 77.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:09:40.395Z | 75.0% | 77.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:10:12.308Z | 75.0% | 77.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:11:10.572Z | 75.0% | 77.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:12:47.155Z | 75.0% | 74.8% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:13:09.532Z | 72.5% | 74.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:13:11.849Z | 72.5% | 74.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:13:19.733Z | 72.5% | 74.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:15:56.292Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:15:56.851Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:16:12.715Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:16:17.929Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:16:30.194Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:17:10.979Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:18:08.426Z | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 06, 08:16 AM | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 08:16 AM | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 08:15 AM | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 08:15 AM | 72.5% | 73.7% | +1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 08:13 AM | 72.5% | 74.8% | +2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 08:13 AM | 72.5% | 74.8% | +2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 08:09 AM | 75.0% | 77.0% | +2.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 08:07 AM | 76.0% | 76.9% | +0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.