Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
Ends: Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 07:25 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T04:53:51.658Z | 57.5% | 64.6% | +7.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:00:29.980Z | 57.5% | 66.7% | +9.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:04:34.754Z | 57.5% | 70.3% | +12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:09:23.835Z | 57.5% | 77.1% | +19.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:17:41.208Z | 79.5% | 80.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:21:38.185Z | 79.5% | 78.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:23:38.630Z | 79.5% | 78.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:29:47.589Z | 79.5% | 77.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:34:47.822Z | 79.5% | 75.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:36:41.255Z | 79.5% | 77.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:41:17.323Z | 79.5% | 75.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:49:37.561Z | 79.5% | 76.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:55:41.129Z | 79.5% | 75.8% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:01:41.598Z | 79.5% | 76.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:07:42.206Z | 79.5% | 75.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:15:44.606Z | 79.5% | 71.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:19:43.086Z | 79.5% | 70.1% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:21:38.781Z | 79.5% | 70.8% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:26:26.806Z | 79.5% | 74.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:35:42.058Z | 79.5% | 75.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:39:38.915Z | 79.5% | 75.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:43:49.332Z | 79.5% | 74.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:50:37.891Z | 79.5% | 75.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:54:35.844Z | 79.5% | 76.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:02:45.275Z | 79.5% | 74.9% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:06:39.639Z | 79.5% | 76.9% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:13:40.579Z | 79.5% | 78.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:17:39.770Z | 79.5% | 80.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:23:39.530Z | 79.5% | 81.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:25:06.406Z | 79.5% | 81.8% | +2.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 06, 07:23 AM | 57.5% | 81.8% | +24 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 07:17 AM | 57.5% | 80.9% | +23 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 07:13 AM | 57.5% | 78.4% | +21 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 07:06 AM | 57.5% | 76.9% | +19 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 07:02 AM | 57.5% | 74.9% | +17 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 06:54 AM | 57.5% | 76.2% | +19 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 06:50 AM | 57.5% | 75.6% | +18 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 06:43 AM | 57.5% | 74.2% | +17 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.