Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends: Oct 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 26, 2026, 05:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17T11:57:25.278Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T12:59:20.929Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T13:45:15.907Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T14:47:25.749Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T15:50:18.518Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T16:53:26.221Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T17:55:16.723Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T18:57:24.322Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T19:59:17.930Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T20:47:24.193Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T21:50:06.875Z | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-07-17T23:32:58.648Z | 2.5% | 0.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:59:53.965Z | 2.5% | 0.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-07-20T20:58:49.952Z | 8.8% | 0.2% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-07-23T03:55:19.964Z | 11.6% | 0.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-07-25T10:59:19.711Z | 11.6% | 0.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:56:53.220Z | 9.7% | 0.2% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:57:12.360Z | 10.7% | 0.2% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:22.900Z | 9.6% | 0.2% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-08-03T14:57:59.573Z | 9.0% | 0.2% | -8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T01:58:02.547Z | 9.2% | 0.2% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T23:57:21.746Z | 8.3% | 0.2% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T12:55:34.492Z | 8.1% | 0.2% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T02:59:16.427Z | 7.5% | 0.2% | -7.3 pp |
| 2026-08-16T02:58:40.058Z | 6.9% | 0.2% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-17T09:59:31.614Z | 8.6% | 0.2% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-08-20T10:59:41.996Z | 7.2% | 0.2% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T19:56:00.932Z | 6.6% | 0.2% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T07:59:36.314Z | 6.6% | 0.2% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-26T05:10:57.054Z | 6.5% | 0.2% | -6.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 11:32 PM | 2.5% | 0.2% | −2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 09:50 PM | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 08:47 PM | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 07:59 PM | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 06:57 PM | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 05:55 PM | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 04:53 PM | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Jul 17, 03:50 PM | 2.5% | 4.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.