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Sports · POLYMARKET · LIVE
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends: Oct 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
POLYMARKET YES 9.7%MARX FAIR YES -
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 28, 06:41 AMJul 28, 08:10 AMJul 28, 09:39 AMJul 28, 11:09 AMJul 28, 12:38 PM UTC
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T10:15:12.513Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:20:13.880Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:25:15.229Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:30:17.787Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:35:19.994Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:40:48.568Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:48.969Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:53.800Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:55:59.006Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:07.190Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:06:08.761Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:11:12.571Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:16:13.812Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:21:17.494Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:26:22.729Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:31:24.089Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:36:27.960Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:52.311Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:53.675Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:51:59.078Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:03.861Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:05.352Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:07:09.559Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:12:24.744Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:17:30.297Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:22:33.182Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:27:36.860Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:32:44.566Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:37:46.568Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:21.664Z | 9.7% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.