VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.84 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 07, 03:45 AMAug 07, 03:47 AMAug 07, 03:49 AMAug 07, 03:52 AMAug 07, 03:54 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T03:45:24.450Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:45:31.782Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:46:10.249Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:46:46.674Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:47:13.491Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:48:10.066Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:48:21.836Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:48:47.853Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:49:10.597Z | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:50:11.885Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:50:26.651Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:50:37.961Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:51:14.269Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:51:18.466Z | 10.5% | 0.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:51:25.337Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:52:10.814Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:52:19.311Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:53:10.457Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:54:14.749Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 53.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 90.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 90.6%, gross edge 10.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 0.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.