Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.84 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY53.5%90.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+8.84 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN10.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 07, 03:48 AMAug 07, 03:49 AMAug 07, 03:50 AMAug 07, 03:51 AMAug 07, 03:52 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T03:48:47.853Z53.5%0.0%-53.5 pp
2026-08-07T03:52:19.311Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 53.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 90.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 90.6%, gross edge 10.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 0.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.