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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.00 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY17.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+30.00 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%13%25%38%50%
Aug 07, 04:42 AMAug 07, 04:44 AMAug 07, 04:45 AMAug 07, 04:47 AMAug 07, 04:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T04:42:47.784Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T04:43:28.389Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T04:44:10.237Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T04:45:10.544Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T04:45:22.077Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T04:45:43.057Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-08-07T04:46:10.482Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-08-07T04:47:10.116Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T04:47:37.570Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T04:48:10.136Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T04:49:10.329Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 17.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 32.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.7%. Marx fair UP is 17.1%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.00 pp Edge | AntiPredict