VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.35 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY19.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+28.35 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 59.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Aug 06, 08:21 PMAug 06, 08:22 PMAug 06, 08:22 PMAug 06, 08:23 PMAug 06, 08:23 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T20:21:36.351Z	32.5%	0.0%	-32.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:23:40.124Z	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 19.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 29.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.4%. Marx fair UP is 20.4%.