Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +9.82 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY37.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+9.82 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 08:02 PMAug 06, 08:03 PMAug 06, 08:04 PMAug 06, 08:05 PMAug 06, 08:06 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T20:02:42.249Z96.5%0.0%-96.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:06:10.228Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:06:29.323Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 37.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 9.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 12.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 9.8%. Marx fair UP is 37.9%.