VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.56 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY56.5%84.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+14.56 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN17.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Aug 06, 03:46 PMAug 06, 03:47 PMAug 06, 03:48 PMAug 06, 03:49 PMAug 06, 03:50 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T15:46:39.453Z	56.5%	100.0%	+43.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:50:30.819Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 56.5%.
The executable UP entry was 84.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.6 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 84.0%, gross edge 16.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.