Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.56 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY56.5%84.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+14.56 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN17.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 03:45 PMAug 06, 03:47 PMAug 06, 03:49 PMAug 06, 03:52 PMAug 06, 03:54 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T15:45:26.715Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:46:09.612Z56.5%100.0%+43.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:46:39.453Z56.5%100.0%+43.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:47:10.326Z56.5%100.0%+43.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:48:09.711Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:48:26.914Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:48:50.769Z56.5%100.0%+43.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:48:51.973Z56.5%100.0%+43.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:49:10.787Z56.5%100.0%+43.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:50:10.232Z99.5%56.5%-43.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:50:21.593Z56.5%56.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:50:30.819Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:51:10.213Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:52:10.049Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:53:09.852Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:54:17.905Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 56.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 84.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 84.0%, gross edge 16.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.56 pp Edge | AntiPredict