Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY42.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
Aug 07, 11:31 AMAug 07, 11:31 AMAug 07, 11:31 AMAug 07, 11:32 AMAug 07, 11:32 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T11:31:29.308Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T11:32:10.672Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 42.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 9.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.0%. Marx fair UP is 40.8%.