VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +12.49 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.8% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY66.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+12.49 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-9.8%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 51.5%Marx Fair UP 51.5%

Aug 06, 02:50 PMAug 06, 02:51 PMAug 06, 02:51 PMAug 06, 02:52 PMAug 06, 02:53 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T14:50:27.171Z	46.5%	46.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:50:54.614Z	46.5%	100.0%	+53.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:51:10.128Z	46.5%	100.0%	+53.5 pp
2026-08-06T14:52:10.202Z	46.5%	46.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:52:39.559Z	46.5%	46.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:53:10.072Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:53:20.113Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 66.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 12.4%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 9.4%. Marx fair UP is 63.4%.