VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.58 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 06, 11:45 AMAug 06, 11:47 AMAug 06, 11:49 AMAug 06, 11:51 AMAug 06, 11:53 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T11:45:20.376Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:45:25.541Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:45:50.678Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:45:51.250Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:46:12.477Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:47:13.282Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:47:30.689Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:47:37.228Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:48:20.072Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:49:11.523Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:49:24.911Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:49:45.968Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:49:46.402Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:50:13.408Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:51:09.783Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:51:36.313Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:52:12.041Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:53:09.769Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 55.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 54.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 54.0%, gross edge 46.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.