Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +22.90 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY76.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+22.90 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 06:21 AMAug 06, 06:23 AMAug 06, 06:24 AMAug 06, 06:26 AMAug 06, 06:28 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T06:21:39.909Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-06T06:26:28.511Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T06:28:10.307Z100.0%100.0%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 76.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 22.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 25.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 22.9%. Marx fair UP is 76.1%.