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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.78 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY84.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+30.78 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 03:00 AMAug 06, 03:02 AMAug 06, 03:05 AMAug 06, 03:07 AMAug 06, 03:09 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T03:00:47.694Z50.5%99.9%+49.4 pp
2026-08-06T03:02:27.482Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T03:02:43.043Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-06T03:04:04.300Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T03:04:11.700Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T03:04:21.945Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T03:04:33.043Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-06T03:05:09.790Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-08-06T03:06:09.263Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T03:06:21.290Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T03:07:09.454Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T03:08:09.334Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T03:09:23.949Z0.0%0.1%+0.1 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 84.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 30.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.2%. Marx fair UP is 81.5%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.78 pp Edge | AntiPredict