VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +59.85 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 05, 09:15 PMAug 05, 09:17 PMAug 05, 09:19 PMAug 05, 09:22 PMAug 05, 09:24 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T21:15:17.039Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:15:23.942Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:16:09.201Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:16:41.028Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:17:09.257Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:18:09.640Z | 7.5% | 50.5% | +43.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:18:20.842Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:18:36.806Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:19:09.226Z | 7.5% | 100.0% | +92.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:20:09.544Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:20:20.547Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:20:43.162Z | 7.5% | 100.0% | +92.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:21:10.146Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:22:09.209Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:22:33.593Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:23:12.734Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:23:17.625Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:23:25.396Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:24:16.740Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 44.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 38.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 38.0%, gross edge 62.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 59.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.