Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.63 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.63 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 45.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 05:01 PMAug 05, 05:03 PMAug 05, 05:05 PMAug 05, 05:06 PMAug 05, 05:08 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T17:01:59.068Z63.5%100.0%+36.5 pp
2026-08-05T17:06:38.555Z45.5%45.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T17:08:10.125Z0.0%45.5%+45.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.