Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.93 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.93 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 87.5%Marx Fair UP 87.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 02:56 PMAug 05, 02:56 PMAug 05, 02:57 PMAug 05, 02:58 PMAug 05, 02:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T14:56:06.332Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-05T14:58:57.317Z87.5%87.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T14:59:09.405Z87.5%87.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.9%. Marx fair UP is 99.2%.