VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.00 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 1.5%Marx Fair UP 1.5%
Aug 05, 11:10 AMAug 05, 11:12 AMAug 05, 11:14 AMAug 05, 11:16 AMAug 05, 11:18 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T11:10:29.379Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:12:38.248Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:14:10.608Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:14:44.268Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:14:52.181Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:15:10.081Z | 1.5% | 29.5% | +28.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:15:13.920Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:15:22.681Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:15:34.892Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:15:36.165Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:16:06.987Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:17:02.691Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:17:13.665Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:18:09.366Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 31.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 67.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 31.0%, gross edge 69.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 67.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.