VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 05, 11:00 AMAug 05, 11:02 AMAug 05, 11:04 AMAug 05, 11:07 AMAug 05, 11:09 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T11:00:10.084Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:00:22.989Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:00:46.197Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:01:07.437Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:02:01.570Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:02:12.968Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:03:01.482Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:03:29.808Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:04:07.375Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:04:22.436Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:05:13.537Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:05:20.444Z | 99.5% | 96.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:05:39.798Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:05:43.405Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:06:06.926Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:08:50.758Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:09:27.376Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:09:28.569Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.