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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 85.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 10:35 AMAug 05, 10:37 AMAug 05, 10:39 AMAug 05, 10:41 AMAug 05, 10:43 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T10:35:19.369Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:35:34.727Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:35:42.064Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:35:49.522Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-05T10:36:09.217Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-08-05T10:37:15.323Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:37:20.920Z97.5%49.5%-48.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:39:15.748Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-05T10:39:27.695Z97.5%100.0%+2.5 pp
2026-08-05T10:40:07.616Z99.5%97.5%-2.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:40:08.979Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:40:17.096Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:41:10.534Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:42:03.735Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:43:01.852Z85.5%99.5%+14.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict