Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.78 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%56.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+41.78 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN73.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 69.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 09:15 AMAug 05, 09:16 AMAug 05, 09:17 AMAug 05, 09:18 AMAug 05, 09:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T09:15:31.954Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:17:35.192Z70.5%100.0%+29.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:19:29.000Z69.5%100.0%+30.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 56.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 56.0%, gross edge 44.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.