VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.78 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 87.5%Marx Fair UP 87.5%
Aug 05, 09:15 AMAug 05, 09:17 AMAug 05, 09:19 AMAug 05, 09:22 AMAug 05, 09:24 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T09:15:19.139Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:15:31.954Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:17:07.848Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:17:19.990Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:17:35.192Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:18:08.384Z | 69.5% | 100.0% | +30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:19:04.729Z | 87.5% | 69.5% | -18.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:19:12.196Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:19:29.000Z | 69.5% | 100.0% | +30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:19:45.667Z | 87.5% | 100.0% | +12.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:21:18.379Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:21:44.205Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:23:53.852Z | 100.0% | 87.5% | -12.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:24:39.127Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 56.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 56.0%, gross edge 44.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.