VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.87 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 75.5%Marx Fair UP 75.5%
Aug 05, 08:36 AMAug 05, 08:38 AMAug 05, 08:40 AMAug 05, 08:42 AMAug 05, 08:44 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T08:36:10.687Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:36:28.798Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:36:53.563Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:38:04.671Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:38:19.760Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:38:30.298Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:39:02.933Z | 75.5% | 100.0% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:40:02.592Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:40:11.039Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:40:24.198Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:41:02.831Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:42:07.976Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:42:20.554Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:43:03.398Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:44:02.562Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:44:24.530Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 29.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 90.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 90.0%, gross edge 10.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.