VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +33.78 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 05, 07:55 AMAug 05, 07:57 AMAug 05, 07:59 AMAug 05, 08:01 AMAug 05, 08:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T07:55:04.607Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:55:21.122Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:55:39.938Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:56:04.592Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:57:04.531Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:57:14.263Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:57:32.694Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:58:04.456Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:59:04.685Z | 100.0% | 47.5% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:59:15.066Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:59:28.968Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:00:59.994Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:01:52.592Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:03:17.704Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 64.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 33.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 64.1%, gross edge 36.0%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 33.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.