VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +38.81 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 05, 07:25 AMAug 05, 07:27 AMAug 05, 07:29 AMAug 05, 07:32 AMAug 05, 07:34 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T07:25:04.716Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:25:34.889Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:26:04.578Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:27:04.482Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:27:20.220Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:27:37.921Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:28:04.554Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:29:04.607Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:29:20.208Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:29:30.862Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:29:31.314Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:30:04.491Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:31:11.106Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:33:36.958Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:33:38.323Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:34:18.809Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 59.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 59.0%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.