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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.73 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.73 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 06:41 AMAug 05, 06:43 AMAug 05, 06:45 AMAug 05, 06:47 AMAug 05, 06:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T06:41:04.426Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:41:19.531Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:41:34.513Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-05T06:42:04.536Z66.5%100.0%+33.5 pp
2026-08-05T06:43:04.432Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:43:09.532Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:43:30.873Z66.5%100.0%+33.5 pp
2026-08-05T06:43:31.135Z66.5%100.0%+33.5 pp
2026-08-05T06:44:06.069Z66.5%100.0%+33.5 pp
2026-08-05T06:45:04.497Z0.5%66.5%+66.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:45:14.305Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:45:27.842Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:45:36.675Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-08-05T06:46:04.903Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-08-05T06:47:04.485Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:47:35.907Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:48:04.545Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T06:49:38.598Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.73 pp Edge | AntiPredict