VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +61.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 05, 05:40 AMAug 05, 05:42 AMAug 05, 05:44 AMAug 05, 05:46 AMAug 05, 05:48 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T05:40:06.629Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:40:33.442Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:42:04.610Z | 20.5% | 50.5% | +30.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:42:11.026Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:42:33.867Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:43:06.691Z | 20.5% | 100.0% | +79.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:44:04.530Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:44:11.339Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:44:32.142Z | 20.5% | 100.0% | +79.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:45:04.694Z | 20.5% | 100.0% | +79.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:46:04.498Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:46:20.891Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:47:04.462Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:48:04.575Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T05:48:31.230Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 36.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 61.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 36.1%, gross edge 64.0%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 61.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.