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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.95 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%67.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+30.95 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN45.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 71.5%Marx Fair UP 71.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Aug 05, 05:07 AMAug 05, 05:09 AMAug 05, 05:10 AMAug 05, 05:12 AMAug 05, 05:14 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T05:07:30.100Z44.5%50.5%+6.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:07:35.631Z55.5%50.5%-5.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:08:04.814Z55.5%50.5%-5.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:08:21.511Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:08:31.150Z55.5%55.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:09:04.692Z35.5%35.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:09:17.680Z35.5%35.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:10:04.511Z35.5%100.0%+64.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:10:39.921Z35.5%100.0%+64.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:11:04.486Z35.5%100.0%+64.5 pp
2026-08-05T05:12:04.578Z35.5%35.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:12:29.671Z35.5%35.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:13:04.549Z35.5%35.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:14:04.557Z71.5%71.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T05:14:26.977Z71.5%71.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 67.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 67.0%, gross edge 33.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 31.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.95 pp Edge | AntiPredict