Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.00 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+7.00 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 52.5%Marx Fair UP -
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 01, 05:54 PMAug 01, 05:54 PMAug 01, 05:54 PMAug 01, 05:54 PMAug 01, 05:54 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T17:54:49.349Z52.5%-—
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 40.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.1%, gross edge 9.3%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.0%. Marx fair UP is 40.7%.