VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.00 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.1%, gross edge 9.3%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.0%. Marx fair UP is 40.7%.