VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.30 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 60.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 9.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.3%. Marx fair UP is 60.5%.