Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.30 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY60.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+7.30 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-9.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
Aug 01, 02:18 PMAug 01, 02:18 PMAug 01, 02:18 PMAug 01, 02:18 PMAug 01, 02:18 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T14:18:25.378Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 60.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 9.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.3%. Marx fair UP is 60.5%.