VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN93.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 51.5%

Jul 31, 02:51 PMJul 31, 02:52 PMJul 31, 02:54 PMJul 31, 02:56 PMJul 31, 02:58 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T14:51:09.188Z	40.5%	40.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T14:52:31.156Z	40.5%	0.0%	-40.5 pp
2026-07-31T14:52:56.997Z	40.5%	0.0%	-40.5 pp
2026-07-31T14:52:58.312Z	40.5%	0.0%	-40.5 pp
2026-07-31T14:55:15.795Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T14:56:00.985Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T14:56:01.285Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T14:57:06.432Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T14:57:54.054Z	51.5%	51.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T14:58:23.664Z	0.1%	51.5%	+51.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.