VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +60.87 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%37.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+60.87 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Jul 31, 12:55 PMJul 31, 12:57 PMJul 31, 12:59 PMJul 31, 01:01 PMJul 31, 01:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T12:55:42.736Z	48.5%	48.5%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T12:55:45.674Z	48.5%	48.5%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T12:57:26.210Z	48.5%	48.5%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T12:57:26.408Z	57.5%	48.5%	-9.0 pp
2026-07-31T12:58:25.941Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-31T12:59:17.365Z	57.5%	57.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:00:02.233Z	57.5%	57.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:00:02.358Z	86.5%	57.5%	-29.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:00:43.433Z	86.5%	86.5%	-0.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:00:44.542Z	99.5%	86.5%	-13.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:02:13.740Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp
2026-07-31T13:02:13.877Z	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5 pp
2026-07-31T13:03:56.263Z	100.0%	0.0%	-100.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 37.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 60.9 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 37.0%, gross edge 63.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 60.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.