VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 76.5%Marx Fair UP 50.5%

Jul 31, 01:21 PMJul 31, 01:22 PMJul 31, 01:24 PMJul 31, 01:25 PMJul 31, 01:27 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-31T13:21:17.291Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:22:13.721Z	38.5%	38.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:23:47.928Z	50.5%	38.5%	-12.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:27:09.892Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T13:27:10.089Z	76.5%	50.5%	-26.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.