VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 31, 10:55 AMJul 31, 10:57 AMJul 31, 10:59 AMJul 31, 11:01 AMJul 31, 11:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T10:55:16.827Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:55:39.487Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:55:57.024Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:57:13.289Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:57:42.660Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:57:42.715Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:58:04.491Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:58:39.548Z | 4.5% | 12.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:58:46.246Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:59:32.133Z | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T10:59:44.745Z | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:01:05.925Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:01:41.788Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:02:04.595Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:02:48.016Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:02:58.419Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T11:03:41.931Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.