VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.67 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 42.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.1%, gross edge 8.9%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.5%. Marx fair UP is 41.1%.