Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.67 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY42.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.67 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 98.5%Marx Fair UP 98.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 01, 07:18 AMAug 01, 07:18 AMAug 01, 07:18 AMAug 01, 07:18 AMAug 01, 07:18 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T07:18:21.489Z98.5%98.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 42.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.1%, gross edge 8.9%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.5%. Marx fair UP is 41.1%.