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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +68.60 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%29.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+68.60 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN223.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 75.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 10:40 PMJul 30, 10:42 PMJul 30, 10:44 PMJul 30, 10:47 PMJul 30, 10:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T22:40:00.178Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:40:47.923Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:41:28.752Z21.5%21.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:41:52.546Z21.5%21.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:42:29.789Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:43:04.963Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:43:28.374Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:44:23.703Z97.5%21.5%-76.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:44:44.908Z21.5%21.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:45:15.419Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:45:24.751Z99.5%97.5%-2.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:45:56.247Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:46:32.377Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:47:28.212Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:48:26.126Z75.5%75.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:49:26.351Z75.5%75.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:49:33.424Z100.0%75.5%-24.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 29.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 68.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 29.4%, gross edge 71.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 68.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +68.60 pp Edge | AntiPredict