Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +68.60 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%29.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+68.60 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN223.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 50.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 10:40 PMJul 30, 10:40 PMJul 30, 10:40 PMJul 30, 10:40 PMJul 30, 10:40 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T22:40:00.178Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 29.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 68.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 29.4%, gross edge 71.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 68.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.